Cagliari1 - 0Cremonese
CagliariWhy did AI enter 8 times at 25', 32', 43', 47', 55', 63', 67', 70' — and still finish +$3212?
Match Overview
Cagliari hosted Cremonese in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: S. Esposito (63'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 8 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$3211.70 (ROI: +38.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 2.13; the home moneyline shortened from 2.19 to 2.09.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Cremonese 0 and Cagliari and Cagliari -0.5. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.8% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 14.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1625.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Cagliari -0.5 and Cagliari and Cremonese 0. Average expected value was 15.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1112.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.1% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 63' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Cagliari leading 1-0 at 63'. S. Esposito scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 28.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 26.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Cagliari leading 1-0 at 67'. S. Esposito scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cremonese -1. Average expected value was 48.4%, with a combined stake of $691. The sharpest edge was on Cremonese -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 46.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$725.55. ### Wave 8 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Cagliari leading 1-0 at 70'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cremonese -1. Average expected value was 47.7%, with a combined stake of $734. The sharpest edge was on Cremonese -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 45.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$715.65.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese -1: AI saw 95.2% vs market's 48.8% (46.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese -1: AI saw 96.4% vs market's 50.6% (45.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 43.5% (26.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -0.5: AI saw 55.8% vs market's 41.2% (14.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -0.5: AI saw 52.7% vs market's 38.5% (14.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1369.65 (ROI: +42.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$1112.50 (ROI: +74.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$729.55 (ROI: +19.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 38%–62% in Cagliari's deficit. Cagliari had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Cremonese's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Cagliari 0.54 — Cremonese 0.28. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +38.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1369.65.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 47.9% / 31.1% / 23.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 47.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 47.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market underestimated Cagliari's probability to cover the -0.5 Asian Handicap.
The Serie A fixture between Cagliari and Cremonese concluded with a 1-0 victory for Cagliari. In the 1x2 market, Cagliari was the market favorite with an implied probability of 47.85%, aligning with the actual outcome. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market. Despite Cagliari ultimately covering the -0.5 line with their 1-0 win, the closing line implied a higher probability (54.35%) for Cremonese to cover the +0.5 handicap (i.e., not lose by more than 0.5 goals). This indicates that the market undervalued Cagliari's ability to win outright and cover the spread. The Goals Over/Under market, set at 2.25, accurately leaned towards the Under with a 55.25% implied probability, as the match only produced a single goal. OddsFlow AI identified a clear EV+ opportunity on Cagliari -0.5 AH.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +38.1% ROI on 16 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1369.65.
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