Bologna1 - 0Udinese
BolognaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 58', 65' — and still finish +$1143?
Match Overview
Bologna hosted Udinese in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: F. Bernardeschi (75' pen). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1143.42 (ROI: +161.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. Bologna made 4 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna -0.25. Average expected value was 2.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$190.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 65'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Bologna. Average expected value was 7.6%, with a combined stake of $508. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$953.42.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1143.42 (ROI: +161.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in Bologna's deficit. Bologna had 11 shots (6 on target) versus Udinese's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Bologna 1.27 — Udinese 0.56. Corners: 4-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +161.4% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.6% / 28.6% / 21.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Total Goals (Over/Under 2.25), heavily favoring the Over when the Under ultimately hit.
The Serie A clash between Bologna and Udinese concluded with a narrow 1-0 victory for Bologna. The 1X2 market, where Bologna was the market favorite with a 52.63% implied probability, accurately reflected the outcome. Similarly, Bologna successfully covered the -0.5 Asian Handicap as predicted by the model (52.36% probability). However, the most striking inefficiency was observed in the Total Goals (Over/Under 2.25) market. Despite the market leaning heavily towards the Over with a 53.19% probability, the match finished with only 1 goal, resulting in a profitable 'Under' bet. This represents a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who faded the market sentiment on the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +161.4% ROI on 2 trades.
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