Bologna

0 - 2

Lazio

Bologna hosted Lazio in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: K. Taylor (72'), K. Taylor (82'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$1513.60 (ROI: +27.5%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 2.04; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.3 to 2.41.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna and Lazio 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Lazio 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 11.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lazio -1. Average expected value was 35.8%, with a combined stake of $959. The sharpest edge was on Lazio -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$671.30. ### Wave 4 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 62'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lazio -1. Average expected value was 39.2%, with a combined stake of $1049. The sharpest edge was on Lazio -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$734.30. ### Wave 5 — Minute 68' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 68'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lazio -0.5. Average expected value was 43.1%, with a combined stake of $505. The sharpest edge was on Lazio -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 40.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$808.00.

- **Minute 68'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -0.5: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 38.5% (40.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -1: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 58.8% (36.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -1: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 58.8% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lazio 0: AI saw 54.6% vs market's 43.5% (11.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lazio 0: AI saw 54.3% vs market's 43.5% (10.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1129.30 (ROI: +38.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$384.30 (ROI: +15.1%)

Possession was 53%–47% in Bologna's favor. Bologna had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Lazio's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: Bologna 1.3 — Lazio 1.6. Corners: 1-1.