Bologna3 - 3Inter
BolognaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 10', 23' — and still finish +$75?
Match Overview
Bologna hosted Inter in the Serie A, finishing 3-3. Goals: F. Dimarco (22'), F. Dimarco (23'), F. Bernardeschi (25'), T. Pobega (42'), P. Zielinski (48' OG), F. Esposito (64'), A. Diouf (86'), A. Diouf (87'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$75.00 (ROI: +37.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.85 to 3.72.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Inter +0.5. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Inter +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Inter leading 0-1 at 23'. F. Dimarco scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna +0.5. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Bologna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$175.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 23'** — Asian Handicap Bologna +0.5: AI saw 60.2% vs market's 36.4% (23.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$75.00 (ROI: +37.5%)
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +37.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 26.9% / 27.3% / 48.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw.
The Serie A clash between Bologna and Inter, ending in a dramatic 3-3 draw, revealed a notable market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The closing line had Inter as strong favorites with a 48.78% win probability, while the draw odds implied only a 27.25% chance. OddsFlow AI detected significant Closing Line Value (CLV) on the draw, as the eventual outcome contradicted the market's strong sentiment towards an Inter victory. In the Asian Handicap market, Bologna +0.5 (53.48% probability) covered comfortably. The Goals Over/Under 2.75 market correctly anticipated a high-scoring fixture, with the Over priced at 52.63% probability and easily hitting with 6 total goals. The primary error was the market's failure to account for a high-scoring stalemate, creating EV+ opportunities on the draw.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +37.5% ROI on 2 trades.
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