Bologna0 - 0Cagliari
BolognaWhy did AI enter 6 times at 15', 25', 51', 57', 69', 75' — and still finish +$346?
Match Overview
Bologna hosted Cagliari in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 6 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of +$346.00 (ROI: +5.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.65 to 1.84.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari 0. Average expected value was 36.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 33.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Cagliari 0 and Cagliari. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $2319. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 32.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1946.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 69' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 69'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$400.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 75' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 75'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari 0. Average expected value was 46.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 36.4% (44.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 75.4% vs market's 42.1% (33.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 43.5% (32.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 75.1% vs market's 43.5% (31.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Cagliari: AI saw 41.5% vs market's 28.6% (12.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$400.00 (ROI: +40.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-27.00 (ROI: -1.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-27.00 (ROI: -1.0%)
Match Statistics
Bologna had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Cagliari's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +5.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$400.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 54.4% / 28.6% / 20.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the goal total, presenting a strong Under value.
The Serie A fixture between Bologna and Cagliari concluded in a 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market priced Bologna as clear favorites with a 54.35% implied win probability, while the draw was anticipated at 28.65%. The actual draw outcome indicated a slight undervaluation of the draw by the closing line. In the Handicap Asian market, Bologna -0.5 was backed at 54.05% to cover, which ultimately failed due to the goalless stalemate. However, the most pronounced market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under 2.25) market. The closing line showed a slight lean towards the Over with 52.63% probability, compared to 50.51% for the Under. The 0 total goals represented a stark deviation from market sentiment, offering a clear EV+ value signal on the Under. Bookmakers clearly got it wrong on the goal expectancy.
A positive result with +5.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$346.00. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$400.00.
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