Bologna0 - 2AS Roma
BolognaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish $-1000?
Match Overview
Bologna hosted AS Roma in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: D. Malen (7'), N. El Aynaoui (45'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1000.00 (ROI: -45.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.98; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.1 to 3.51.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AS Roma leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna +1. Average expected value was 12.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Bologna +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AS Roma leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna +0.5 and Bologna +1. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Bologna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bologna +0.5: AI saw 60.1% vs market's 36.4% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bologna +0.5: AI saw 60.2% vs market's 36.4% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Bologna +1: AI saw 60.2% vs market's 48.8% (11.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Bologna +1: AI saw 60.1% vs market's 48.8% (11.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Bologna +1: AI saw 58.3% vs market's 48.2% (10.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Bologna had 4 shots (1 on target) versus AS Roma's 0 (0 on target). Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -45.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$0.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 28.5% / 30.1% / 44.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued the Over 2.25 total goals.
Post-match analysis of Bologna 0-2 AS Roma reveals a clear market inefficiency in the Totals market. While the 1x2 market correctly identified AS Roma as the favorite (44.25% implied probability), and they secured a 2-0 victory, the Over/Under 2.25 line was mispriced. Our model indicated a lean towards the Over 2.25 with a 53.19% probability. However, the actual outcome of 2 total goals meant the Under 2.25 comfortably hit. This represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who faded the market sentiment on the Over and backed the Under. The Asian Handicap (-0.25 for Roma) also showed relative efficiency, with Roma covering their line.
A tough session at -45.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$0.00.
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