Bologna0 - 3AC Milan
BolognaWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-359 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Bologna hosted AC Milan in the Serie A, finishing 0-3. Goals: R. Loftus-Cheek (20'), C. Nkunku (39' pen), A. Rabiot (48'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-358.90 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.58 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bologna 0. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $359. The sharpest edge was on Bologna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.7% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-358.90.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-358.90 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–44% in Bologna's favor. Bologna had 12 shots (2 on target) versus AC Milan's 10 (7 on target). Expected goals: Bologna 0.44 — AC Milan 2.61. Corners: 5-0.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 33.3% / 31.4% / 38.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, providing clear EV+ on Over 2.25 Goals.
The fixture between Bologna and AC Milan concluded with a decisive 0-3 victory for the away side. In the 1x2 market, AC Milan's implied win probability at closing was 38.02%, which proved to be an undervaluation given their dominant performance. On the Asian Handicap (line 0), the market leaned towards AC Milan covering with a 54.35% probability, and they did so comfortably with a three-goal margin. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. With a closing line of 2.25 goals and an implied probability of 52.08% for the Over, the market failed to fully price in the potential for goals. The actual three goals meant the Over 2.25 was a clear winner, signaling significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who backed the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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