Atalanta2 - 1Napoli
Atalanta1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Atalanta hosted Napoli in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: S. Beukema (18'), M. Pasalic (61'), L. Samardzic (81'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$205.00 (ROI: +102.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 2.03; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.4 to 2.73.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta -0.25. Average expected value was 3.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$205.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$205.00 (ROI: +102.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57%–43% in Atalanta's favor. Atalanta had 10 shots (7 on target) versus Napoli's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Atalanta 0.75 — Napoli 1.08. Corners: 6-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.6% / 33.1% / 33.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant **Value Signal** on Over 2.25 goals.
Atalanta secured a 2-1 victory over Napoli in a Serie A encounter. The 1x2 market priced Atalanta as a slight favorite at 36.63% implied probability, which aligned with the outcome, indicating reasonable efficiency. On the Asian Handicap (AH 0) market, Atalanta's win meant they successfully covered the spread. The market assigned a 53.76% probability for Atalanta to cover, demonstrating an accurate assessment of their chances at this line. However, the Totals market (O/U 2.25) showed a clear **market inefficiency**. The closing line leaned towards the Under 2.25 goals with a 53.19% implied probability, but the match produced 3 goals, clearing the Over. This highlights a significant **Value Signal on the Over 2.25 goals**, as bookmakers significantly underestimated the scoring potential.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.5% ROI on 1 trades.
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