Atalanta

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Hellas Verona

Atalanta hosted Hellas Verona in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: D. Zappacosta (37'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$430.92 (ROI: +4.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.95.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Hellas Verona -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 30.0%, with a combined stake of $4317. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.2% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 46.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atalanta leading 1-0 at 47'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hellas Verona -1.5. Average expected value was 45.7%, with a combined stake of $2778. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 43.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2569.65. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atalanta leading 1-0 at 52'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Atalanta. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $3076. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 74.1% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-638.73.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona -1: AI saw 90.2% vs market's 43.5% (46.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona -1: AI saw 89.7% vs market's 43.5% (46.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona -1: AI saw 89.6% vs market's 43.5% (46.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona -1.5: AI saw 95.9% vs market's 51.9% (43.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona -1.5: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 51.9% (43.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$157.55 (ROI: +4.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$144.83 (ROI: +4.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$128.55 (ROI: +3.8%)

Possession was 60%–40% in Atalanta's favor. Atalanta had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Hellas Verona's 12 (3 on target). Expected goals: Atalanta 1.02 — Hellas Verona 1.11. Corners: 2-4.