Atalanta0 - 0Genoa
AtalantaWhy did AI enter 7 times at 25', 28', 39', 44', 50', 60', 65' — and still finish +$5692?
Match Overview
Atalanta hosted Genoa in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 7 waves, achieving 79% precision with a net result of +$5692.42 (ROI: +76.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa -1. Average expected value was 22.1%, with a combined stake of $1402. The sharpest edge was on Genoa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 19.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1103.93. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa -0.5. Average expected value was 10.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Genoa -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.7% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1300.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 49.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1300.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Genoa -0.5. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Genoa -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2425.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. Genoa made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$700.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 65'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Genoa -1: AI saw 75.5% vs market's 55.6% (19.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Genoa -1: AI saw 76.1% vs market's 56.3% (19.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$2347.92 (ROI: +86.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$2056.00 (ROI: +76.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1288.50 (ROI: +64.4%)
Match Statistics
Atalanta had 20 shots (7 on target) versus Genoa's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2347.92.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 65.4% / 23.0% / 15.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Under 2.75 Value
The Serie A fixture between Atalanta and Genoa concluded in a surprising 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw, pricing Atalanta as strong 65.36% favorites. On the handicap market, Atalanta failed to cover the -1 line, a clear miss given the 0-0 scoreline, indicating Genoa was an EV+ play on the +1 handicap. However, the most striking inefficiency was in the Totals market. With the closing line set at 2.75 goals and an 'Over' probability of 50%, the actual result of zero goals presents a significant Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on the 'Under'. The market entirely missed the low-scoring nature of this encounter.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.9% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2347.92.
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