Atalanta0 - 1Bologna
AtalantaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 10', 36', 42', 66' — and still finish $-311?
Match Overview
Atalanta hosted Bologna in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: R. Orsolini (78'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 4 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of $-311.49 (ROI: -20.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.82 to 1.97; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.64 to 1.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta -0.5. Average expected value was 19.8%, with a combined stake of $212. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 12.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-212.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta -0.5. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $348. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.9% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.13. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-348.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Atalanta. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $372. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.8% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 11.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$78.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. Atalanta made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 0.75 and Over 0.5. Average expected value was 27.4%, with a combined stake of $591. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$170.51.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Over 0.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 49.0% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Over 0.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 49.5% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Over 0.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 50.3% (19.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Over 0.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 50.8% (19.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -0.5: AI saw 64.5% vs market's 51.5% (12.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/3L/2V, +$82.74 (ROI: +15.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 2W/7L/2V, $-182.23 (ROI: -23.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-212.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Atalanta's deficit. Atalanta had 9 shots (0 on target) versus Bologna's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Atalanta 0.54 — Bologna 0.7. Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -20.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$82.74.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.1% / 24.7% / 21.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market heavily mispriced Bologna, offering significant Closing Line Value.
The Serie A fixture between Atalanta and Bologna concluded 0-1, with Bologna securing an away victory. OddsFlow analysis reveals a significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. Atalanta was heavily favored with an implied win probability of 57.14%, while Bologna’s win probability was a mere 21.51%. The actual outcome demonstrated strong Closing Line Value (CLV) on Bologna, as the underdog defied market sentiment to claim all three points. In the Handicap market, Atalanta closed as -0.75 favorites (50.76% to cover), but Bologna, with a +0.75 handicap (51.28% to cover), successfully covered the spread. The Totals market (O/U 3) showed better efficiency; with only one goal scored, the market's lean towards the Under (54.35%) proved accurate. The most pronounced error was the market's undervaluation of Bologna in the outright win.
A tough session at -20.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$82.74.
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