AS Roma3 - 0Pisa
AS RomaWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-1000 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
AS Roma hosted Pisa in the Serie A, finishing 3-0. Goals: D. Malen (3'), D. Malen (43'), D. Malen (52'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1000.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** AS Roma leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Pisa -1.5. Average expected value was 22.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Pisa -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.2% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 19.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 46.5% (19.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1.5: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 46.5% (18.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in AS Roma's favor. AS Roma had 7 shots (3 on target) versus Pisa's 8 (5 on target). Expected goals: AS Roma 1.5 — Pisa 0.81. Corners: 1-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-500.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 74.6% / 18.9% / 9.9% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated AS Roma's ability to cover the -1.5 Asian Handicap.
The match between AS Roma and Pisa concluded with a decisive 3-0 victory for AS Roma. Analyzing the 1x2 market, AS Roma was the clear favorite with an implied win probability of 74.63%, which aligned with the actual outcome. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market. Despite AS Roma covering the -1.5 line comfortably by winning 3-0, the closing line odds suggested a higher probability (53.48%) for Pisa to cover the +1.5 handicap. This indicates a significant misjudgment by the market, undervaluing Roma's dominant performance potential. The Over/Under 2.5 goals market was relatively efficient, with the 'Over' hitting as expected, given its implied probability of 53.19% versus the 3 total goals scored.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-500.00.
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