AS Roma2 - 0Lazio
AS RomaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 12', 37' — and still finish $-599?
Match Overview
AS Roma hosted Lazio in the Serie A, finishing 2-0. Goals: G. Mancini (40'), G. Mancini (66'). AS Roma received a red card (Wesley Franca, 70'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 2 waves, achieving 18% precision with a net result of $-599.00 (ROI: -65.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the home moneyline shortened from 1.65 to 1.52.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 12' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 12'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lazio -1. Average expected value was 16.7%, with a combined stake of $198. The sharpest edge was on Lazio -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-198.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Lazio -1 and Under 1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 36.0%, with a combined stake of $713. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 77.7% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-401.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 77.7% vs market's 49.8% (27.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 77.4% vs market's 49.8% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 77.7% vs market's 50.0% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 77.4% vs market's 50.0% (27.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -1: AI saw 74.7% vs market's 58.8% (15.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-198.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-198.50 (ROI: -55.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-202.50 (ROI: -56.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50–50 in AS Roma's deficit. AS Roma had 13 shots (6 on target) versus Lazio's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: AS Roma 1.09 — Lazio 0.71. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -65.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-198.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 65.8% / 23.2% / 14.6% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.5 goals line was mispriced, failing to anticipate the Under 2.5 outcome.
AS Roma secured a 2-0 victory over Lazio, aligning with the market's expectation of a home win. The 1x2 market correctly priced AS Roma as the market favorite (65.79% implied probability). On the Asian Handicap line of -1, AS Roma also successfully covered, with the market showing a slight lean (52.91%) for them to do so. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite the closing line favoring Over 2.5 goals with a 52.08% implied probability, the match concluded with only 2 goals. This outcome firmly landed in the Under 2.5 category, highlighting a clear Value Signal for bettors who identified the discrepancy between market sentiment and the actual low-scoring affair.
A tough session at -65.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-198.00.
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