AS Roma3 - 3Juventus
AS RomaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 64' — and still finish $-200?
Match Overview
AS Roma hosted Juventus in the Serie A, finishing 3-3. Goals: Wesley Franca (39'), F. Conceicao (47'), E. Ndicka (54'), D. Malen (65'), J. Boga (78'), F. Gatti (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AS Roma 0. Average expected value was 6.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on AS Roma 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.8% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 64' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** AS Roma leading 2-1 at 64'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AS Roma -0.25. Average expected value was 3.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-200.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in AS Roma's deficit. AS Roma had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Juventus's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: AS Roma 1.63 — Juventus 0.66. Corners: 3-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.4% / 32.9% / 33.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market severely underestimated the potential for goals, presenting significant EV+ on Over 2.25 goals.
The AS Roma vs Juventus fixture concluded in a thrilling 3-3 draw. In the 1x2 Market, the draw was priced at an implied probability of 32.89%, while AS Roma was the marginal favorite. The actual outcome aligned with the market's expectation of a possible draw, but the scoreline was unexpected. For the Asian Handicap (0), AS Roma was slightly favored at 53.19% to cover, however, the draw meant neither team covered. The most glaring Market Inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under 2.25) market. Bookmakers heavily leaned towards the Under, pricing it at a 54.35% probability, while the Over was only at 48.08%. The match produced a high-scoring 6 goals, resulting in a significant 'Over' outcome. This represents a substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who backed the Over, indicating a clear mispricing by the market on goal expectations.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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