AS Roma4 - 0Fiorentina
AS RomaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
AS Roma hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 4-0. Goals: G. Mancini (13'), Wesley Franca (17'), M. Hermoso (34'), N. Pisilli (58'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the home moneyline shortened from 1.74 to 1.56.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** AS Roma leading 1-0 at 15'. G. Mancini scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina -1.5. Average expected value was 36.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 33.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina -1.5: AI saw 81.5% vs market's 48.2% (33.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61–39 in AS Roma's favor. AS Roma had 14 shots (7 on target) versus Fiorentina's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: AS Roma 2.14 — Fiorentina 0.12. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.1% / 23.5% / 15.7% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimated Over 2.5 Goals
AS Roma's commanding 4-0 victory over Fiorentina showcased a significant market inefficiency in the **Totals (Over/Under)** market. While the market correctly identified AS Roma as the **moneyline favorite** (64.1% probability of win) and leaned towards **Over 2.5 Goals** (52.36% probability), the actual outcome of 4 total goals far exceeded this expectation. The **handicap market** at -1 for AS Roma also saw a successful cover, yet the pre-match probability of 50.76% for Roma to cover suggests a slight undervaluation of their offensive power. The most pronounced **value signal** was the **Over 2.5 Goals**, presenting a clear **EV+ opportunity** that the closing line failed to accurately price.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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