AS Roma1 - 1Atalanta
AS RomaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 31', 45' — and still finish +$1979?
Match Overview
AS Roma hosted Atalanta in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: N. Krstovic (12'), M. Hermoso (45'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 3 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of +$1978.77 (ROI: +21.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.92; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.2 to 2.56.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atalanta leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting AS Roma -0.5 and AS Roma +0.5 and Atalanta and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 15.5%, with a combined stake of $4502. The sharpest edge was on AS Roma +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 29.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting +$1002.10. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atalanta leading 0-1 at 31'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta and AS Roma +0.5. Average expected value was 19.6%, with a combined stake of $1269. The sharpest edge was on AS Roma +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$326.68. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atalanta leading 0-1 at 45'. M. Hermoso scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Atalanta 0 and Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 3 of 7 trades won, netting +$650.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma +0.5: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 48.2% (30.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma +0.5: AI saw 78.4% vs market's 48.8% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma +0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 48.8% (29.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 45.5% (15.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$1053.15 (ROI: +32.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$798.95 (ROI: +24.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$126.68 (ROI: +4.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in AS Roma's favor. AS Roma had 18 shots (9 on target) versus Atalanta's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: AS Roma 0.86 — Atalanta 0.68. Corners: 7-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +21.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1053.15.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.1% / 29.8% / 34.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.5 goals was an EV+ bet.
The Serie A fixture between AS Roma and Atalanta concluded in a 1-1 draw, resulting in a total of 2 goals. In the 1x2 market, the draw outcome, with an implied probability of 29.76%, proved to be a significant value signal as it occurred despite being the least likely outcome according to closing odds. The Asian Handicap with a 0 line saw a push, with the market favoring AS Roma at 54.64% to cover. However, the most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line favoring Over 2.5 goals with an implied probability of 52.08%, the match finished with only 2 goals, making the Under 2.5 a clear EV+ bet. Bookmakers seemingly underestimated the defensive capabilities or potential for a low-scoring affair.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +21.3% ROI on 17 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1053.15.
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