AC Milan0 - 3Udinese
AC MilanWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 37' — and still finish $-1677?
Match Overview
AC Milan hosted Udinese in the Serie A, finishing 0-3. Goals: A. Atta (27'), D. Bartesaghi (27' OG), J. Ekkelenkamp (37'), A. Atta (71'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-1677.40 (ROI: -43.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.96; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese -1 and AC Milan -0.5. Average expected value was 23.0%, with a combined stake of $2227. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.8% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 24.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-18.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Udinese leading 0-1 at 37'. J. Ekkelenkamp scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting AC Milan +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 36.4%, with a combined stake of $1659. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 49.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1659.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan +0.5: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 40.0% (49.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan +0.5: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 40.0% (49.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan -0.5: AI saw 62.8% vs market's 38.5% (24.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan -0.5: AI saw 62.5% vs market's 38.5% (24.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Udinese -1: AI saw 73.2% vs market's 55.6% (17.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-660.80 (ROI: -37.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1016.60 (ROI: -47.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63%–37% in AC Milan's favor. AC Milan had 20 shots (3 on target) versus Udinese's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: AC Milan 1.66 — Udinese 1.24. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -43.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-660.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 71.4% / 21.1% / 11.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The outright Udinese win in the 1x2 market was a massive value signal.
AC Milan suffered an unexpected 0-3 home defeat to Udinese. The 1x2 market heavily favored AC Milan, assigning them a 71.43% implied win probability, while Udinese's outright victory held only an 11.26% chance. This outcome represents a significant market inefficiency and immense Closing Line Value (CLV) for those who backed Udinese. On the Asian Handicap of AC Milan -1.25, the probabilities were balanced at 51.02% for both sides. Udinese's dominant 3-0 win meant they easily covered the spread (Udinese +1.25), highlighting another mispricing. The Goals Over/Under 2.5 market showed a slight lean towards the Over (53.19% probability), and with 3 total goals, this market was relatively more efficient, though the exact distribution of goals (0 for Milan) was certainly unforeseen.
A tough session at -43.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-660.80.
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