AC Milan3 - 2Torino
AC MilanWhat went wrong? 6 trades, $-1500 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
AC Milan hosted Torino in the Serie A, finishing 3-2. Goals: S. Pavlovic (36'), S. Pavlovic (37'), G. Simeone (44'), G. Simeone (45'), A. Rabiot (54'), Y. Fofana (56'), N. Vlasic (82' pen). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1500.00 (ROI: -40.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Torino -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $3706. The sharpest edge was on Torino -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Torino -1: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 42.6% (37.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Torino -1: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 42.6% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Torino -1: AI saw 79.2% vs market's 42.6% (36.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 36.5% vs market's 20.0% (16.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 36.2% vs market's 20.0% (16.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -40.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -40.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -40.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64%–36% in AC Milan's favor. AC Milan had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Torino's 18 (7 on target). Expected goals: AC Milan 1.34 — Torino 2.22. Corners: 3-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -40.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at $-500.00.
A tough session at -40.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at $-500.00.
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