AC Milan0 - 1Parma
AC MilanWhy did AI enter 2 times at 58', 67' — and still finish $-774?
Match Overview
AC Milan hosted Parma in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: M. Troilo (80'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-773.75 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting AC Milan. Average expected value was 3.1%, with a combined stake of $574. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-573.75. ### Wave 2 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 67'. AC Milan made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AC Milan -0.5. Average expected value was 0.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-773.75 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 66%–34% in AC Milan's favor. AC Milan had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Parma's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: AC Milan 1.17 — Parma 0.46. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 73.5% / 19.5% / 10.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market dramatically underestimated Parma's win probability and overestimated AC Milan's, alongside mispricing the Under 2.5 goals.
The Serie A clash between AC Milan and Parma, ending 0-1, showcased significant market inefficiencies. AC Milan was the heavy 1x2 favorite, with an implied win probability of 73.53%, yet they suffered an outright defeat. This outcome highlights a substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for any bettor backing Parma. On the Asian Handicap market, AC Milan (-1.25) failed to cover, further confirming the market's overestimation of their dominance. Moreover, the Totals (Over/Under 2.5) market was mispriced, leaning 'Over' with a 54.05% probability. With only one goal scored, the 'Under 2.5' was a clear EV+ signal, indicating another area where bookmakers got it wrong.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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