AC Milan0 - 0Juventus
AC MilanWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 39', 58', 70' — and still finish +$902?
Match Overview
AC Milan hosted Juventus in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. Goals: K. Thuram (36'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 4 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of +$902.00 (ROI: +20.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 2.03; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 2.09.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Juventus 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 13.6%, with a combined stake of $1517. The sharpest edge was on Juventus 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.4% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 16.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting +$875.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.8% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1527.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Juventus 0: AI saw 69.4% vs market's 53.3% (16.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Juventus 0: AI saw 68.8% vs market's 53.3% (15.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$738.50 (ROI: +36.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$663.50 (ROI: +32.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
AC Milan had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Juventus's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +20.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$738.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.6% / 31.1% / 37.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 47.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Under 2.5 Goals.
The Serie A clash between AC Milan and Juventus concluded in a 0-0 stalemate, a result that offered distinct market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, the draw, priced at 31.15% implied probability, materialized against a slight market favoritism for Juventus (37.04%). The Asian Handicap (0) was a push, with both teams failing to cover, reflecting the tight nature of the contest, as the market correctly predicted a balanced affair. However, the most significant mispricing occurred in the Totals market. Despite the closing line favoring Under 2.5 goals at 54.64% probability, the actual score of zero goals presented immense Closing Line Value (CLV) for Under bettors. The market, while leaning correctly, severely underestimated the true potential for a barren draw.
A positive result with +20.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$902.00. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$738.50.
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