AC Milan1 - 1Como
AC MilanWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-1056 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
AC Milan hosted Como in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: N. Paz (32'), R. Leao (64'). AC Milan received a red card (M. Allegri, 80'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1056.23 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Como. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $1056. The sharpest edge was on Como (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.1% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1056.23.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1056.23 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in AC Milan's favor. AC Milan had 6 shots (4 on target) versus Como's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: AC Milan 0.76 — Como 1.38. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.7% / 31.4% / 31.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 46.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market slightly over-projected the goal count, offering value on Under 2.25.
The Serie A clash between AC Milan and Como concluded in a 1-1 draw, a result that offered some intriguing insights into market efficiency. In the 1x2 market, AC Milan was a slight favorite with a 39.68% implied win probability, while the draw was priced at 31.35%. The actual draw outcome suggests a slight undervaluation of the stalemate by the closing line. On the Asian Handicap of -0.25 for AC Milan, the market correctly identified Como (+0.25) as having a higher probability to cover at 55.25%. The 1-1 scoreline resulted in a half-win for Como +0.25 backers, indicating a relatively efficient handicap line. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. With a closing line of 2.25 goals, the market leaned slightly towards the Over with 52.08% probability. The match, however, ended with just 2 goals, leading to a half-win for those backing Under 2.25. This outcome delivered positive Closing Line Value (CLV) for Under bettors, highlighting an area where the bookmakers slightly over-projected the goal count.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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