AC Milan2 - 3Atalanta
AC MilanWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 20', 25' — and still finish $-179?
Match Overview
AC Milan hosted Atalanta in the Serie A, finishing 2-3. Goals: Ederson (7'), D. Zappacosta (29'), D. Zappacosta (30'), G. Raspadori (52'), S. Pavlovic (88'), C. Nkunku (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-178.60 (ROI: -2.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 1.91; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.05 to 2.23.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 20.7%, with a combined stake of $518. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-518.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 20' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atalanta leading 0-1 at 20'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AC Milan +0.5. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 28.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$210.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atalanta leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta and Under 3.5 and AC Milan +0.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 15.9%, with a combined stake of $7098. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 29.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 6 of 12 trades won, netting +$129.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan +0.5: AI saw 78.3% vs market's 48.8% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan +0.5: AI saw 77.7% vs market's 48.8% (29.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan +0.5: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 48.2% (28.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 20'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan +0.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 48.8% (28.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 60.4% vs market's 50.0% (10.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$210.00 (ROI: +105.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$61.95 (ROI: +2.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$42.20 (ROI: +1.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$25.25 (ROI: +1.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-518.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57–43 in AC Milan's favor. AC Milan had 19 shots (9 on target) versus Atalanta's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: AC Milan 1.88 — Atalanta 1.08. Corners: 2-2.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -2.3% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$210.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.8% / 29.6% / 28.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Atalanta's outright win probability in the 1x2 market.
The match between AC Milan and Atalanta concluded with a 2-3 victory for the away side, Atalanta. In the 1x2 market, the closing lines indicated AC Milan as the market favorite with a 44.84% implied win probability, while Atalanta's win probability stood at a significantly lower 28.49%. This proved to be a clear market inefficiency, as Atalanta secured the outright win, offering substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on the away victory. The Asian Handicap market, set at -0.25 for AC Milan, also saw Atalanta defy expectations by covering the spread, indicating a slight misjudgment by the market which favored AC Milan to cover. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market, with a line of 2.5, accurately predicted an 'Over' outcome given the 5 total goals (52.36% implied probability for Over), showing strong efficiency in this particular segment. The OddsFlow model identified significant EV+ on Atalanta's outright win.
A marginally negative session at -2.3% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$210.00.
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