NEOM

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Al-Ettifaq

NEOM hosted Al-Ettifaq in the Pro League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Dembele (6'), A. Al Haji (81'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 6 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$284.75 (ROI: +32.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.85 to 1.96.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 10'. M. Dembele scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NEOM +0.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on NEOM +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$3.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +1. Average expected value was 7.7%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 41.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq and NEOM +0.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $289. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 72.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 24.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** 4 of 10 trades won, netting $-261.68. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 42'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 47.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 7.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$12.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 47'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and NEOM +0.5 and Under 3.5 and Al-Ettifaq. Average expected value was 35.5%, with a combined stake of $314. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 53.5% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.87. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting $-21.77. ### Wave 6 — Minute 74' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 74'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 50.9%, with a combined stake of $255. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 58.4% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 27.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$556.50.

- **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 58.4% vs market's 31.3% (27.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 53.5% (26.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 58.4% vs market's 31.7% (26.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 58.4% vs market's 31.7% (26.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 54.9% (25.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 6W/3L, +$193.76 (ROI: +60.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 6W/3L, +$113.06 (ROI: +48.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-0.30 (ROI: -3.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, $-21.77 (ROI: -6.9%)

Possession was 62–38 in NEOM's favor. NEOM had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Ettifaq's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: NEOM 1.6 — Al-Ettifaq 0.55. Corners: 4-0.