Damac

3 - 0

Al-Fayha

Damac hosted Al-Fayha in the Pro League, finishing 3-0. Goals: M. Sylla (16'), A. Bedrane (53'), A. Bedrane (77'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 4 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$2.73 (ROI: +1.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.02 to 1.87.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Fayha -0.5. Average expected value was 14.2%, with a combined stake of $89. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fayha -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.5% probability versus the market's implied 52.1% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.92. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-89.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Damac leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Fayha -1. Average expected value was 50.1%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fayha -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.4% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 47.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-12.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Damac leading 1-0 at 45'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Fayha -1. Average expected value was 51.9%, with a combined stake of $6. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fayha -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 49.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-6.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 77' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Damac leading 2-0 at 77'. A. Bedrane scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 37.7%, with a combined stake of $165. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.5% probability versus the market's implied 59.9% — a 27.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.67. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$109.73.

- **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fayha -1: AI saw 93.0% vs market's 43.5% (49.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fayha -1: AI saw 91.4% vs market's 43.5% (47.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fayha -1: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 43.5% (47.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 77'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 59.9% (27.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 59.9% (27.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$30.58 (ROI: +50.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$30.58 (ROI: +50.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$30.58 (ROI: +50.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-89.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 44–56 in Damac's deficit. Damac had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Al-Fayha's 6 (1 on target). Expected goals: Damac 1.46 — Al-Fayha 0.11. Corners: 7-6.