Al Taawon0 - 2Al-Ittihad FC
Al TaawonWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish $-4489?
Match Overview
Al Taawon hosted Al-Ittihad FC in the Pro League, finishing 0-2. Goals: H. Aouar (19'), H. Aouar (20'), Y. En Nesyri (52'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4489.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 3.44 to 3.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Taawon -0.5. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al Taawon -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.3% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 17.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ittihad FC leading 0-1 at 25'. H. Aouar scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Al Taawon +0.5 and Al Taawon. Average expected value was 27.6%, with a combined stake of $4289. The sharpest edge was on Al Taawon +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 41.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-4289.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Al Taawon +0.5: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 45.5% (41.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al Taawon +0.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 46.5% (40.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al Taawon +0.5: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 46.5% (40.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Al Taawon -0.5: AI saw 58.3% vs market's 41.2% (17.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Al Taawon: AI saw 36.2% vs market's 21.1% (15.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1408.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1436.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1445.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Al Taawon had 17 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Ittihad FC's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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