Al Shabab

2 - 4

Al-Nassr

Al Shabab hosted Al-Nassr in the Pro League, finishing 2-4. Goals: Joao Felix (3'), Joao Felix (10'), Y. Carrasco (30'), C. Ronaldo (75'), A. Al Bulayhi (80'), Joao Felix (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 4 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$362.80 (ROI: +5.9%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.25 to 1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.78 to 8.43.

### Wave 1 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 1-2 at 30'. Y. Carrasco scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 5.5 and Al Shabab +1.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $3458. The sharpest edge was on Al Shabab +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 40.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$1632.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 1-2 at 45'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al Shabab +1.5 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 18.2%, with a combined stake of $1200. The sharpest edge was on Al Shabab +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-770.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 1-2 at 58'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.2% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 1-2 at 71'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Shabab +1. Average expected value was 38.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Al Shabab +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 36.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Al Shabab +1.5: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 38.5% (40.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Al Shabab +1.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 38.5% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Al Shabab +1.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 38.5% (38.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Al Shabab +1.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 46.5% (36.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Al Shabab +1: AI saw 73.1% vs market's 36.4% (36.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$230.00 (ROI: +115.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, +$62.40 (ROI: +2.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, +$49.60 (ROI: +2.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$20.80 (ROI: +1.3%)

Possession was 43–57 in Al Shabab's deficit. Al Shabab had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Nassr's 15 (5 on target). Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.28 — Al-Nassr 3.21. Corners: 2-8.