Al Shabab3 - 2Al-Ittihad FC
Al ShababWhy did AI enter 3 times at 36', 47', 53' — and still finish $-780?
Match Overview
Al Shabab hosted Al-Ittihad FC in the Pro League, finishing 3-2. Goals: A. Al Bulayhi (54'), H. Camara (59'), H. Aouar (67'), Y. Carrasco (87'), D. Pereira (90'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-780.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Ittihad FC. Average expected value was 60.8%, with a combined stake of $437. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ittihad FC (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 74.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.0% — a 36.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.63. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-437.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Ittihad FC +0.5 and Under 1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 29.8%, with a combined stake of $324. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 79.8% probability versus the market's implied 53.8% — a 26.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.86. **Result:** All 10 trades lost, netting $-324.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $19. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.9% probability versus the market's implied 27.4% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 3.65. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-19.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 36'** — Moneyline Al-Ittihad FC: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 38.0% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Moneyline Al-Ittihad FC: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 38.0% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Moneyline Al-Ittihad FC: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 38.0% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Moneyline Al-Ittihad FC: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 38.0% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Moneyline Al-Ittihad FC: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 40.2% (33.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-154.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 0W/8L, $-291.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 0W/10L, $-335.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47–53 in Al Shabab's deficit. Al Shabab had 13 shots (9 on target) versus Al-Ittihad FC's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.41 — Al-Ittihad FC 1.01. Corners: 4-11.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at $-154.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at $-154.00.
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