Al Shabab1 - 1Al-Fateh
Al ShababWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 35' — and still finish +$10769?
Match Overview
Al Shabab hosted Al-Fateh in the Pro League, finishing 1-1. Goals: S. Bendebka (36' pen), M. Saadane (74' OG). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 2 waves, achieving 74% precision with a net result of +$10768.50 (ROI: +75.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 2.04.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Fateh -0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $6664. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 84.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 34.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 9 trades won, netting +$9289.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 5 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system_S5_live, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Fateh 0 and Under 3.5 and Al Shabab +0.5 and Al-Fateh. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $7640. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 97.4% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 35.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** 8 of 14 trades won, netting +$1479.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 61.9% (35.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 61.9% (35.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 61.9% (35.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 50.0% (34.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 50.0% (34.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$3504.50 (ROI: +75.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$3503.50 (ROI: +75.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$3491.50 (ROI: +75.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$140.00 (ROI: +70.0%) - **system_S5_live**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$129.00 (ROI: +60.0%)
Match Statistics
Al Shabab had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Al-Fateh's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +75.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$3504.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +75.3% ROI on 23 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$3504.50.
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