Al Riyadh

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Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Riyadh hosted Al-Qadisiyah FC in the Pro League, finishing 0-4. Goals: A. Al Salem (7'), J. Quinones (17'), A. Al Salem (77'), J. Quinones (87'), J. Quinones (90'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 3 waves, achieving 22% precision with a net result of $-1914.00 (ROI: -31.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at 1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.81; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Al Riyadh +1.5. Average expected value was 46.4%, with a combined stake of $3701. The sharpest edge was on Al Riyadh +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.5% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 48.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$563.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 0-1 at 30'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 22.1%, with a combined stake of $1141. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 75.8% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1141.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 0-1 at 44'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system_S5_live, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $1336. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1336.00.

- **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Al Riyadh +1.5: AI saw 86.5% vs market's 38.5% (48.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Al Riyadh +1.5: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 38.5% (47.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 50.0% (39.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 50.0% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 62.4% vs market's 42.1% (20.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system_S5_live**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-336.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-786.00 (ROI: -26.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-792.00 (ROI: -27.1%)

Possession was 33%–71% in Al Riyadh's deficit. Al Riyadh had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 0 (0 on target).