Al Riyadh1 - 0Al Okhdood
Al RiyadhWhy did AI enter 4 times at 27', 35', 51', 59' — and still finish +$906?
Match Overview
Al Riyadh hosted Al Okhdood in the Pro League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Toze (5'). OddsFlow deployed 30 trades across 4 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$906.48 (ROI: +94.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 1.53 to 1.38.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 27' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Riyadh leading 1-0 at 27'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Okhdood -1.5. Average expected value was 36.1%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Al Okhdood -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 33.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Riyadh leading 1-0 at 35'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al Okhdood -1.5 and Under 3.5 and Al Okhdood -1 and Under 4.5 and Under 3.25. Average expected value was 44.0%, with a combined stake of $749. The sharpest edge was on Al Okhdood -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 36.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 21 trades won, netting +$680.68. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Riyadh leading 1-0 at 51'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.4% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 10.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$12.48. ### Wave 4 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Riyadh leading 1-0 at 59'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Okhdood -0.5. Average expected value was 23.8%, with a combined stake of $194. The sharpest edge was on Al Okhdood -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$207.82.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Okhdood -1: AI saw 78.9% vs market's 42.6% (36.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Okhdood -1: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 42.6% (36.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Okhdood -1: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 42.6% (36.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 52.1% (34.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 52.9% (34.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 10 trades, 10W/0L, +$303.98 (ROI: +96.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 9W/0L, +$299.51 (ROI: +95.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 10W/0L, +$297.50 (ROI: +91.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$5.50 (ROI: +137.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43–57 in Al Riyadh's deficit. Al Riyadh had 16 shots (7 on target) versus Al Okhdood's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.03 — Al Okhdood 0.54. Corners: 11-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$303.98.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.5% ROI on 30 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$303.98.
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