Al Riyadh1 - 0Al-Fateh
Al RiyadhWhy did AI enter 3 times at 47', 65', 73' — and still finish +$2564?
Match Overview
Al Riyadh hosted Al-Fateh in the Pro League, finishing 1-0. Goals: M. Sylla (47'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$2564.28 (ROI: +31.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 2.3 to 1.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Al-Fateh -1 and Over 2.5 and Al-Fateh -0.5 and Al-Fateh and Al-Fateh 0. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $3413. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 48.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-595.35. ### Wave 2 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Riyadh leading 1-0 at 65'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Al-Fateh -1 and Al-Fateh -0.5 and Al-Fateh 0 and Over 1.5 and Al Riyadh. Average expected value was 30.4%, with a combined stake of $4422. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 49.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 5 of 7 trades won, netting +$3159.63. ### Wave 3 — Minute 73' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Riyadh leading 1-0 at 73'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Fateh 0. Average expected value was 39.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 48.2% (49.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -1: AI saw 95.3% vs market's 46.5% (48.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -0.5: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 36.4% (48.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -0.5: AI saw 82.9% vs market's 36.4% (46.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh 0: AI saw 85.4% vs market's 46.5% (38.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2796.13 (ROI: +71.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$363.50 (ROI: +51.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-595.35 (ROI: -17.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 40–60 in Al Riyadh's deficit. Al Riyadh had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Al-Fateh's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Al Riyadh 2.12 — Al-Fateh 0.51. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +31.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2796.13.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +31.9% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2796.13.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.