Al-Qadisiyah FC3 - 1Al-Nassr
Al-Qadisiyah FCWhat went wrong? 9 trades, $-6583 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC hosted Al-Nassr in the Pro League, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Abu Al Shamat (24'), Joao Felix (39'), M. Al Juwayr (55'), J. Quinones (78'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-6583.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.87.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Joao Felix's equalizer at 39'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Nassr 0 and Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 39.0%, with a combined stake of $6583. The sharpest edge was on Al-Nassr 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 45.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-6583.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Al-Nassr 0: AI saw 81.4% vs market's 36.4% (45.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Al-Nassr 0: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 36.4% (44.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Al-Nassr 0: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 36.4% (44.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 50.0% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 50.0% (37.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2188.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2192.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2203.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–52% in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favor. Al-Qadisiyah FC had 6 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Nassr's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-2188.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-2188.00.
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