Al-Qadisiyah FC2 - 0Al-Hazm
Al-Qadisiyah FCWhy did AI enter 3 times at 35', 47', 70' — and still finish +$317?
Match Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC hosted Al-Hazm in the Pro League, finishing 2-0. Goals: J. Quinones (13'), J. Quinones (14'), J. Quinones (39'), A. A. Hazazi (86'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$316.65 (ROI: +93.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -2; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Under 3.75 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 34.3%, with a combined stake of $318. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 27.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$284.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 1-0 at 47'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Al-Hazm -1.5. Average expected value was 20.7%, with a combined stake of $16. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hazm -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 30.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$26.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 1-0 at 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Hazm -1.5. Average expected value was 40.9%, with a combined stake of $6. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hazm -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 38.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.85.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hazm -1.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 50.6% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hazm -1.5: AI saw 67.2% vs market's 36.4% (30.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hazm -1.5: AI saw 67.0% vs market's 36.4% (30.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.75: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 52.4% (27.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.75: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 52.4% (27.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$155.40 (ROI: +93.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$155.40 (ROI: +93.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$5.85 (ROI: +97.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favor. Al-Qadisiyah FC had 11 shots (6 on target) versus Al-Hazm's 2 (0 on target). Expected goals: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.52 — Al-Hazm 0.05. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$155.40.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.1% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$155.40.
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