Al Okhdood

3 - 1

Al Khaleej Saihat

Al Okhdood hosted Al Khaleej Saihat in the Pro League, finishing 3-1. Goals: C. Bassogog (13' pen), J. King (18'), K. Narey (59'), A. Al Hatila (90'). OddsFlow deployed 31 trades across 5 waves, achieving 13% precision with a net result of $-385.42 (ROI: -54.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.95; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.27 to 4.38.

### Wave 1 — Minute 11' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 11'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5 and Al Khaleej Saihat +1. Average expected value was 24.5%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat +1 and Under 4.5 and Al Khaleej Saihat and Under 4 and Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5. Average expected value was 22.0%, with a combined stake of $621. The sharpest edge was on Under 4 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 74.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 26.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** 2 of 20 trades won, netting $-308.74. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 41'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 12.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 53'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.7%, with a combined stake of $54. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-54.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 58'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Al Khaleej Saihat -0.5 and Al Okhdood. Average expected value was 20.4%, with a combined stake of $20. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 40.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-6.68.

- **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat -0.5: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 46.5% (40.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 59'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat -0.5: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 46.5% (40.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 48.3% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 48.8% (25.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 48.3% (25.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-8.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 14 trades, 2W/10L/2V, $-161.21 (ROI: -49.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 15 trades, 2W/11L/2V, $-216.21 (ROI: -57.0%)

Possession was 43–57 in Al Okhdood's deficit. Al Okhdood had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: Al Okhdood 1.2 — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14. Corners: 2-6.