Al Okhdood

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Al-Ettifaq

Al Okhdood hosted Al-Ettifaq in the Pro League, finishing 1-3. Goals: A. Medran (45'), J. Pedroza (60'), K. Al Ghannam (75'), G. Wijnaldum (80'). OddsFlow deployed 31 trades across 6 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$2409.90 (ROI: +15.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.95; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.82 to 3.94.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +1. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 21.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$230.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ettifaq +1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 18.2%, with a combined stake of $4610. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 22.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 6 of 9 trades won, netting +$1705.90. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Al-Ettifaq +0.5. Average expected value was 12.2%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 15.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-150.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 47'. A. Medran scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Al Okhdood +1 and Al Okhdood +0.5. Average expected value was 11.9%, with a combined stake of $4000. The sharpest edge was on Al Okhdood +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 13.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 3 of 8 trades won, netting $-1.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Pedroza's equalizer at 60'. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 48.2% probability versus the market's implied 22.2% — a 26.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4.5. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$375.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Pedroza's equalizer at 60'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00.

- **Minute 62'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 48.2% vs market's 22.2% (26.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 44.4% (25.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 44.4% (25.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq +1: AI saw 62.7% vs market's 40.0% (22.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ettifaq +1: AI saw 64.0% vs market's 42.1% (21.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 5W/3L/1V, +$985.90 (ROI: +21.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$855.00 (ROI: +122.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/4L/1V, +$459.00 (ROI: +9.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/4L/1V, +$110.00 (ROI: +2.2%)

Al Okhdood had 19 shots (6 on target) versus Al-Ettifaq's 0 (0 on target).