Al-Nassr4 - 1Damac
Al-NassrWhat went wrong? 12 trades, $-91 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Al-Nassr hosted Damac in the Pro League, finishing 4-1. Goals: S. Mane (34'), S. Mane (35'), K. Coman (52'), M. Sylla (58' pen), C. Ronaldo (63'), C. Ronaldo (81'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 1 wave, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-91.40 (ROI: -18.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -2.25 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.85; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 69' (Score: 3-1) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 3-1 at 69'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.75 and Under 5 and Damac -1.5 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 54.4%, with a combined stake of $492. The sharpest edge was on Damac -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 49.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 6 of 12 trades won, netting $-91.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Damac -1.5: AI saw 96.7% vs market's 47.6% (49.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Damac -1.5: AI saw 96.6% vs market's 47.6% (49.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Damac -1.5: AI saw 96.2% vs market's 47.6% (48.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 4.75: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 46.1% (40.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Over/Under Under 4.75: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 47.6% (39.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/0L/2V, $-13.80 (ROI: -8.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/0L/2V, $-13.80 (ROI: -8.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/0L/2V, $-63.80 (ROI: -38.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Al-Nassr's favor. Al-Nassr had 14 shots (9 on target) versus Damac's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: Al-Nassr 1.02 — Damac 0.88. Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -18.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-13.80.
A tough session at -18.6% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-13.80.
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