Al-Nassr

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Nassr hosted Al-Hilal Saudi FC in the Pro League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Simakan (37'), Bento (90' OG). OddsFlow deployed 37 trades across 4 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of +$1180.18 (ROI: +11.1%).

The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 and Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.25 and Al-Hilal Saudi FC +0.25. Average expected value was 44.9%, with a combined stake of $400. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 32.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.25 and Al-Hilal Saudi FC +0.25 and Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 and Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $5646. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 34.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 8 of 24 trades won, netting $-1493.32. ### Wave 3 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 1-0 at 37'. M. Simakan scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Nassr and Under 3.5 and Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.5. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $3039. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 48.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting +$1251.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Nassr leading 1-0 at 54'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Hilal Saudi FC -1. Average expected value was 47.6%, with a combined stake of $1585. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hilal Saudi FC -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 45.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1426.50.

- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.5: AI saw 85.9% vs market's 37.4% (48.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 37.4% (48.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hilal Saudi FC -1: AI saw 97.7% vs market's 52.6% (45.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hilal Saudi FC -1: AI saw 97.5% vs market's 52.6% (44.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 45.5% (34.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 17 trades, 5W/8L/4V, +$633.05 (ROI: +12.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 17 trades, 5W/8L/4V, +$551.13 (ROI: +10.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/0L/3V, $-4.00 (ROI: -1.0%)

Possession was 37–63 in Al-Nassr's deficit. Al-Nassr had 9 shots (4 on target) versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Al-Nassr 1.39 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.85. Corners: 5-2.