Al Najma1 - 0Al Shabab
Al NajmaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 17', 35', 44', 51' — and still finish +$537?
Match Overview
Al Najma hosted Al Shabab in the Pro League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Lazaro (45' pen). OddsFlow deployed 25 trades across 4 waves, achieving 80% precision with a net result of +$536.63 (ROI: +94.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.25 to 1; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Najma +0.5. Average expected value was 17.2%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Al Najma +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 14.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al Najma and Al Najma +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.9%, with a combined stake of $154. The sharpest edge was on Al Najma +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 13.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 7 of 10 trades won, netting +$173.88. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 3 and Al Najma and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.4%, with a combined stake of $396. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 21.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** 9 of 11 trades won, netting +$348.45. ### Wave 4 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al Najma leading 1-0 at 51'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Shabab -0.5. Average expected value was 23.4%, with a combined stake of $13. The sharpest edge was on Al Shabab -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$9.10.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 73.4% vs market's 51.5% (21.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 73.3% vs market's 51.5% (21.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 73.4% vs market's 51.8% (21.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 73.3% vs market's 51.8% (21.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Al Shabab -0.5: AI saw 78.8% vs market's 58.8% (20.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 12 trades, 9W/3L, +$312.11 (ROI: +102.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 9W/2L, +$215.81 (ROI: +85.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$8.70 (ROI: +96.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36–64 in Al Najma's deficit. Al Najma had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Al Shabab's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Al Najma 1.33 — Al Shabab 0.86. Corners: 8-9.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$312.11.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.6% ROI on 25 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$312.11.
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