Al Najma

2 - 2

Al-Hazm

Al Najma hosted Al-Hazm in the Pro League, finishing 2-2. Goals: Felippe Cardoso (3'), O. Al Somah (8'), A. Al Dhuwayhi (42'), N. Al Haleel (45'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 6 waves, achieving 73% precision with a net result of +$3876.54 (ROI: +51.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.77 to 1.86; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.34 to 3.52.

### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after null's equalizer at 8'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Najma +0.5. Average expected value was 2.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$140.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Al Najma +0.5 and Draw and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $2796. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.8% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 11.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$2647.04. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 30'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 12.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 49.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 36'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Al Dhuwayhi's equalizer at 42'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Najma +1. Average expected value was 27.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Al Najma +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 28.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1362.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Hazm leading 1-2 at 47'. N. Al Haleel scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Hazm and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 21.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Al-Hazm (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 73.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 28.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-273.00.

- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Al Najma +1: AI saw 70.7% vs market's 42.1% (28.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Moneyline Al-Hazm: AI saw 73.7% vs market's 45.5% (28.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Al Najma +1: AI saw 63.4% vs market's 42.6% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Moneyline Al-Hazm: AI saw 62.3% vs market's 45.5% (16.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 73.8% vs market's 61.9% (11.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$1930.67 (ROI: +52.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$1805.87 (ROI: +49.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$140.00 (ROI: +70.0%)

Possession was 43–57 in Al Najma's deficit. Al Najma had 6 shots (2 on target) versus Al-Hazm's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: Al Najma 0.68 — Al-Hazm 1.49. Corners: 1-5.