Al Kholood0 - 0Al-Fateh
Al KholoodWhy did AI enter 3 times at 32', 35', 46' — and still finish +$992?
Match Overview
Al Kholood hosted Al-Fateh in the Pro League, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$991.79 (ROI: +123.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.86.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Fateh -0.5. Average expected value was 21.5%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$3.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Al-Fateh -0.5 and Under 1.75 and Draw. Average expected value was 30.8%, with a combined stake of $480. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 28.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 14 trades won, netting +$645.88. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Al-Fateh -0.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 35.2%, with a combined stake of $317. The sharpest edge was on Al-Fateh -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$342.42.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 71.0% vs market's 42.1% (28.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 42.1% (28.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Al-Fateh -0.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 54.6% (25.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 55.6% (25.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 55.6% (25.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 7W/0L, +$345.80 (ROI: +137.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 8 trades, 8W/0L, +$342.42 (ROI: +108.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 7W/0L, +$300.08 (ROI: +131.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$3.50 (ROI: +70.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55–45 in Al Kholood's favor. Al Kholood had 13 shots (6 on target) versus Al-Fateh's 6 (1 on target). Expected goals: Al Kholood 1.29 — Al-Fateh 0.23. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +123.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$345.80.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +123.7% ROI on 23 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$345.80.
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