Al Khaleej Saihat0 - 5Al-Ettifaq
Al Khaleej SaihatWhy did AI enter 3 times at 15', 25', 34' — and still finish $-6524?
Match Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat hosted Al-Ettifaq in the Pro League, finishing 0-5. Goals: K. Al Ghannam (25'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 3 waves, achieving 18% precision with a net result of $-6524.00 (ROI: -71.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.07; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.1 to 2.36.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ettifaq +0.5. Average expected value was 2.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Al Khaleej Saihat +1 and Al-Ettifaq and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 18.1%, with a combined stake of $7874. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ettifaq (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 24.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 14 trades won, netting $-5774.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ettifaq leading 0-1 at 34'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 27.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 31.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +0.5: AI saw 67.6% vs market's 36.4% (31.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Moneyline Al-Ettifaq: AI saw 72.3% vs market's 47.6% (24.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +1: AI saw 66.5% vs market's 45.5% (21.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +1: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 45.5% (20.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +1: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 46.5% (20.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$250.00 (ROI: +125.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-2201.00 (ROI: -67.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-2205.00 (ROI: -67.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-2368.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53–47 in Al Khaleej Saihat's favor. Al Khaleej Saihat had 5 shots (1 on target) versus Al-Ettifaq's 18 (14 on target). Expected goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 0.27 — Al-Ettifaq 2.57. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -71.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$250.00.
A tough session at -71.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$250.00.
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