Al Khaleej Saihat1 - 4Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Khaleej SaihatWhy did AI enter 3 times at 10', 34', 47' — and still finish $-37?
Match Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat hosted Al-Ahli Jeddah in the Pro League, finishing 1-4. Goals: R. Hamidou (8'), G. Masouras (17'), F. Al Buraikan (34'), A. Al Salem (50' OG), Matheus Goncalves (78'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 3 waves, achieving 27% precision with a net result of $-36.96 (ROI: -13.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 1.83; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Ahli Jeddah leading 0-1 at 10'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ahli Jeddah +1. Average expected value was 18.8%, with a combined stake of $38. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ahli Jeddah +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$41.04. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Ahli Jeddah leading 1-2 at 34'. F. Al Buraikan scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat +1.5 and Under 5 and Under 5.5 and Under 4.75 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $228. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 26.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 10 trades won, netting $-66.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Al-Ahli Jeddah leading 1-2 at 47'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat +1. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 15.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-12.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +1.5: AI saw 75.4% vs market's 48.8% (26.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +1.5: AI saw 75.4% vs market's 48.8% (26.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat +1.5: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 48.8% (26.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4.75: AI saw 72.8% vs market's 48.1% (24.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 5: AI saw 72.8% vs market's 50.8% (22.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$33.04 (ROI: +71.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-10.00 (ROI: -15.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/3L/2V, $-60.00 (ROI: -36.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46–54 in Al Khaleej Saihat's deficit. Al Khaleej Saihat had 8 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 0.81 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.93. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -13.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$33.04.
A tough session at -13.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$33.04.
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