Al-Ittihad FC

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Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Ittihad FC hosted Al-Qadisiyah FC in the Pro League, finishing 1-5. Goals: M. Al Juwayr (2'), J. Quinones (37' pen), J. Quinones (37'), J. Quinones (38'), Y. En Nesyri (42' pen), M. Abu Al Shamat (55'), J. Quinones (64'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 6 waves, achieving 10% precision with a net result of $-208.00 (ROI: -43.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.48 to 2.96.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 0-1 at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ittihad FC +1.5. Average expected value was 29.5%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ittihad FC +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 26.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-5.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 24' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 0-1 at 24'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ittihad FC +1. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ittihad FC +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 18.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Al-Ittihad FC +1.5 and Under 3 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 39.7%, with a combined stake of $126. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.7% probability versus the market's implied 49.3% — a 32.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.03. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-126.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 1-3 at 42'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 5.5. Average expected value was 29.4%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Under 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 1-3 at 46'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 6.5 and Under 6 and Under 5.75 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 45.4%, with a combined stake of $318. The sharpest edge was on Under 6 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 91.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.9% — a 36.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.82. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-47.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Al-Qadisiyah FC leading 1-3 at 50'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Ittihad FC +1 and Al-Ittihad FC +1.5. Average expected value was 35.3%, with a combined stake of $18. The sharpest edge was on Al-Ittihad FC +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.4% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 35.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-18.00.

- **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 6: AI saw 91.9% vs market's 54.9% (36.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 6: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 54.9% (36.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Al-Ittihad FC +1.5: AI saw 94.4% vs market's 58.8% (35.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 49.3% (32.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 49.3% (32.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-9.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/3L/1V, $-64.00 (ROI: -56.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/5L/1V, $-67.50 (ROI: -37.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/5L/1V, $-67.50 (ROI: -37.9%)

Possession was 35–65 in Al-Ittihad FC's deficit. Al-Ittihad FC had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 20 (6 on target). Expected goals: Al-Ittihad FC 1.83 — Al-Qadisiyah FC 4.17. Corners: 5-10.