Al-Hilal Saudi FC2 - 0NEOM
Al-Hilal Saudi FCWhy did AI enter 2 times at 35', 41' — and still finish +$290?
Match Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hosted NEOM in the Pro League, finishing 2-0. Goals: R. Neves (10' pen), S. Mandash (58'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$289.55 (ROI: +87.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting NEOM -1.5 and Under 3.25 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 36.5%, with a combined stake of $318. The sharpest edge was on NEOM -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 35.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$271.55. ### Wave 2 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 41'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and NEOM -1.5. Average expected value was 26.4%, with a combined stake of $13. The sharpest edge was on NEOM -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 35.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$18.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap NEOM -1.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 41.2% (35.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap NEOM -1.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 41.2% (35.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap NEOM -1.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 45.5% (35.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 53.2% (24.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 77.3% vs market's 53.2% (24.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$141.78 (ROI: +87.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$141.78 (ROI: +87.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$6.00 (ROI: +120.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57–43 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favor. Al-Hilal Saudi FC had 10 shots (6 on target) versus NEOM's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 — NEOM 0.44. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +87.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$141.78.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +87.5% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$141.78.
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