Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1 - 0

Damac

Al-Hilal Saudi FC hosted Damac in the Pro League, finishing 1-0. Goals: S. Milinkovic-Savic (18'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$6941.95 (ROI: +116.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at -2.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.87; the Over/Under stayed at 3.75 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.85.

### Wave 1 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $2092. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.8% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 21.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1286.58. ### Wave 2 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 44'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system_S5_live) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $1359. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 22.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1993.63. ### Wave 3 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 56'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Damac -1.5. Average expected value was 63.0%, with a combined stake of $1799. The sharpest edge was on Damac -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 61.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$3148.25. ### Wave 4 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 75'. Al-Hilal Saudi FC made 4 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Damac -1.5. Average expected value was 43.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Damac -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.9% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 39.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$150.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Hilal Saudi FC leading 1-0 at 78'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.

- **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Damac -1.5: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 36.4% (61.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Damac -1.5: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 36.4% (60.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Damac -1.5: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 57.1% (39.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 62.0% vs market's 40.0% (22.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 83.8% vs market's 61.9% (21.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2971.13 (ROI: +120.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2963.70 (ROI: +121.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$513.50 (ROI: +73.4%) - **system_S5_live**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$493.63 (ROI: +137.5%)

Possession was 61%–37% in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favor. Al-Hilal Saudi FC had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Damac's 3 (0 on target). Expected goals: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.57 — Damac 0.04. Corners: 11-2.