Al-Hazm

2 - 0

Al Taawon

Al-Hazm hosted Al Taawon in the Pro League, finishing 2-0. Goals: A. El Mahdioui (71'), A. Bah (78'), Y. Oumarou (81'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 6 waves, achieving 30% precision with a net result of $-652.95 (ROI: -59.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.11 to 4.48.

### Wave 1 — Minute 12' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 12'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Taawon +1. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $105. The sharpest edge was on Al Taawon +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 12.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-105.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al Taawon +1 and Under 2.5 and Al-Hazm +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $71. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 30.3% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 7.2 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** 5 of 10 trades won, netting $-28.48. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2 and Under 4.25 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 61.8%, with a combined stake of $309. The sharpest edge was on Under 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 39.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$100.54. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 27.8% probability versus the market's implied 21.1% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 4.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Al Taawon leading 0-1 at 72'. A. El Mahdioui scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Al Taawon. Average expected value was 47.9%, with a combined stake of $108. The sharpest edge was on Al Taawon (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 82.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.2% — a 36.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.21. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-108.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 78' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 78'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 34.5%, with a combined stake of $508. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 86.9% probability versus the market's implied 47.4% — a 39.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.11. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-508.00.

- **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 86.9% vs market's 47.4% (39.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 47.4% (39.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 87.8% vs market's 48.5% (39.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 48.8% (38.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 49.0% (38.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 4W/6L/1V, +$19.87 (ROI: +8.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 3W/6L/2V, $-73.52 (ROI: -29.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-599.30 (ROI: -98.4%)

Possession was 42–58 in Al-Hazm's deficit. Al-Hazm had 20 shots (8 on target) versus Al Taawon's 15 (3 on target). Expected goals: Al-Hazm 2.45 — Al Taawon 0.88. Corners: 9-3.