Al-Hazm2 - 1Al Riyadh
Al-HazmWhy did AI enter 3 times at 19', 25', 72' — and still finish $-3273?
Match Overview
Al-Hazm hosted Al Riyadh in the Pro League, finishing 2-1. Goals: F. Martins (10'), Toze (41' pen), L. Rosier (49'), Y. Al Shammari (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3273.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.68 to 2.83.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Riyadh 0. Average expected value was 14.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al Riyadh 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.8% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Al Riyadh 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 12.4%, with a combined stake of $2573. The sharpest edge was on Al Riyadh 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2573.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 72' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 72'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 19'** — Asian Handicap Al Riyadh 0: AI saw 68.8% vs market's 57.1% (11.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al Riyadh 0: AI saw 69.7% vs market's 58.8% (10.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al Riyadh 0: AI saw 69.6% vs market's 58.8% (10.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 60.0% (10.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1517.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1556.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Al-Hazm had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Al Riyadh's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.