Al-Fayha1 - 2Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-FayhaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish +$1500?
Match Overview
Al-Fayha hosted Al-Qadisiyah FC in the Pro League, finishing 1-2. Goals: M. Al Juwayr (44'), F. Sakala (50'), Gabriel Carvalho (90'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$1500.00 (ROI: +43.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.28 to 7.18.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al-Qadisiyah FC +1. Average expected value was 24.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al-Qadisiyah FC +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Al-Qadisiyah FC +1 and Over 2.5 and Al-Qadisiyah FC. Average expected value was 14.2%, with a combined stake of $3288. The sharpest edge was on Al-Qadisiyah FC +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Al-Qadisiyah FC +1: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 54.8% (22.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al-Qadisiyah FC +1: AI saw 73.7% vs market's 52.6% (21.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Al-Qadisiyah FC +1: AI saw 72.7% vs market's 52.6% (20.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$750.00 (ROI: +46.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$750.00 (ROI: +45.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33–67 in Al-Fayha's deficit. Al-Fayha had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 15 (2 on target). Expected goals: Al-Fayha 1.49 — Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.44. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$750.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.0% ROI on 7 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$750.00.
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