Al-Fateh2 - 0Al Najma
Al-FatehWhy did AI enter 3 times at 15', 35', 57' — and still finish +$441?
Match Overview
Al-Fateh hosted Al Najma in the Pro League, finishing 2-0. Goals: M. Vargas (21'), F. Al Zubaidi (55'). Al Najma received a red card (, 69'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 79% precision with a net result of +$440.59 (ROI: +89.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Najma -0.5. Average expected value was 4.1%, with a combined stake of $4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Fateh leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Under 3 and Al Najma -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 44.0%, with a combined stake of $330. The sharpest edge was on Al Najma -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 46.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 8 of 10 trades won, netting +$320.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 57' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Al-Fateh leading 2-0 at 57'. F. Al Zubaidi scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Under 3.25. Average expected value was 37.8%, with a combined stake of $156. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.3% — a 26.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.84. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$124.20.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Najma -1: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 42.6% (46.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Al Najma -1: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 42.6% (45.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 48.5% (33.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 48.5% (33.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 50.5% (31.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$160.20 (ROI: +97.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$160.20 (ROI: +97.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$124.20 (ROI: +79.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54–46 in Al-Fateh's favor. Al-Fateh had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Al Najma's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.85 — Al Najma 0.54. Corners: 5-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +89.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$160.20.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +89.9% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$160.20.
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