Al-Fateh

1 - 0

Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Fateh hosted Al Khaleej Saihat in the Pro League, finishing 1-0. Goals: M. Saadane (61'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 58% precision with a net result of +$2222.16 (ROI: +29.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.96; the home moneyline shortened from 2.4 to 2.28.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat 0. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.3% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 6.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Al Khaleej Saihat 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $2617. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.2% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-687.94. ### Wave 3 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 14.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1375.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Al-Fateh leading 1-0 at 70'. Al-Fateh made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Al Khaleej Saihat -1. Average expected value was 42.0%, with a combined stake of $3193. The sharpest edge was on Al Khaleej Saihat -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 38.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2235.10.

- **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat -1: AI saw 97.5% vs market's 58.8% (38.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 58.8% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap Al Khaleej Saihat -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 58.8% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 56.7% vs market's 42.1% (14.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 55.8% vs market's 42.1% (13.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1148.34 (ROI: +32.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1133.82 (ROI: +32.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-60.00 (ROI: -15.0%)

Al-Fateh had 11 shots (3 on target) versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 0 (0 on target). Expected goals: Al-Fateh 1.21 — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.